Experts Size-up Third-Quarter Pay TV Customer Trends

NY - It has been fairly quiet inside the cord cutting debate recently, but third-quarter earnings season could change that as cable tv, satellite tv and telecom companies report their latest quarterly customer trends inside the future starting with AT&T on Thursday. When pay TV industry customer figures dropped the first time ever inside the second quarter of 2010, the started speaking about whether clients were cutting the cord for cheaper online options. A 130,000 drop inside the third quarter of a year ago, which adopted the second-quarter decline of 246,000 subs, made an appearance to ensure fears before two quarters of growth alleviated some fears. In this year's second quarter, pay TV operators lost 458,000 clients to complete the initial half at 100.millions of, according to SNL Kagan, with cable deficits as well as the first-ever satellite tv decline being only partially compensated out by gains for telecom leaders.Beginning third-quarter earnings season, experts have different sights, but agree that all things have enhanced over 2010 trends. Having a couple of searching at industry-wide figures while others at freely exchanged distributors' figures, some predict video customer gains, although some project a decrease, although in a few predictions that's less pronounced than around-ago period and definitely less pronounced than in the last quarter. Some on Wall Street expect the present problems by Netflix and third-quarter data to go away traders at ease with the pay TV industry's position. But Credit Suisse analyst Spencer Wang, whose team aided start the cord cutting debate a minimum of last year, mentioned in the report Wednesday: "We remain concerned around the secular basis about the risk of cord-cutting, given a tough economic climate for clients, consistent above-inflation increases in prices for the consumer, as well as the growing ease of access to less costly over-the-top (Internet-shipped) video services." Barclays Capital analyst James Ratcliffe predictions the big freely exchanged pay TV operators to report video internet adds of 105,000 around the cumulative basis, up from 11,000 around-ago period, "driven largely by smaller sized cable deficits." Satellite Tv "is predicted to become mixed bag, with strong gains from DirecTV due only to the promotion of free Nfl Sunday Ticket to new clients, offset by declines at Dish," he written in the report previewing earnings season. "Coming off a soft second quarter, we expect better customer performance inside the seasonally-strong third quarter with results prone to improve year-over-year," he earned obvious. "While material growth acceleration is difficult in our context of virtually zero occupied home growth, the cable/satellite sector has basically defensive characteristics, which we still see minimal evidence of cord cutting." Others also believe more fun round the cord cutting front. "Trends in cable are better versus a year ago, while trends in telecom and satellite are worse, that might temper the overall enthusiasm just a little,Inch mentioned Goldman Sachs analyst Jason Remedy. "Nonetheless, the consecutive rebound, with further improvement expected inside the fourth quarter, coupled with worries at Netflix should still calm cord cutting fears." Burns Tabak analyst David Joyce also layed out improving trends inside the latest quarter together with a restricted cord cutting effect. "With ongoing high unemployment and technology-driven cord cutting contributing to some small degree, there has been internet deficits inside the second quarter, which we expect enhanced internet deficits inside the third quarter," he told The Hollywood Reporter. He projects freely exchanged cable operators to report a 295,000 customer loss though while he includes smaller sized and individually-held companies within the predictions. That'll be a lot better than the 519,000 decrease around-ago period. While telecom giant AT&T and Verizon will boost subs, satellite tv trends will probably be weakened, and cable stands up better. Taking all this and small cable operators together, Joyce estimations that pay TV operators lost only 49,000 video clients inside the third quarter. While Joyce sees a little gain at DirecTV offset by Dish declines for your second small quarterly satellite tv sub decline back to back, Remedy needs that DirecTV will publish 150,000 U.S. customer additions, while competitor Dish will record a loss of profits of 75,000, which might put the satellite sector in growth mode. Remedy predictions total industry video internet deficits of 231,000, less pronounced in comparison to 491,000 deficits inside the second quarter, but greater in comparison to 153,000 deficits inside the third quarter of 2010. Email: Georg.Szalai@thr.com Twitter: @georgszalai Related Subjects